The fight for this year's Best Supporting Actress Oscar is going to be a closely contested one as a mixture of a newcomers and veterans battle it out for the prestigious gong. Here's our guide to those in competition, plus our thoughts as to who's most likely to win.

Rooney Mara

The movie: Carol

Likelihood of winning: 60%

The lowdown: Although Mara's terrific performance in this period romance was hailed as one of its highlights, her chances may have been damaged by the film's snubbing in both the Golden Globes and BAFTAs. Purely in terms of merit, Mara's turn as lovelorn shop assistant Therese Belivet is heartrending and palpably believable, but the politics of the Academy may count against her.

Alicia Vikander

The movie: The Danish Girl

Likelihood of winning: 50%

The lowdown: Tom Hooper's handsomely appointed take on the life of transgender surgery recipient Lili Elbe has perhaps failed to generate the awards traction many expected. This may ultimately count against actress Alicia, despite the fact that her moving performance was seen as the best thing about the movie. Given she was also shut out of the BAFTAs, Alicia's chances look uncertain. Nevertheless, she has enjoyed a fantastic year including Ex Machina and The Man from U.N.C.L.E. - could this steer the odds back in her favour?

Rachel McAdams

The movie: Spotlight

Likelihood of winning: 45%

The lowdown: Terrific though McAdams' performance as tenacious journalist Sacha Pfeiffer is, Spotlight is ultimately less a movie about actorly grandstanding than it is about doing justice to a horrifying true story. Ultimately, McAdams and her fellow performers including nominee Mark Ruffalo are there to support writer/director Tom McCarthy's impeccably researched drama, rather than dominate it.

Kate Winslet

The movie: Steve Jobs

Likelihood of winning: 75%

The lowdown: As Joanna Hoffman, the moral heart of Steve Jobs and the one who keeps Michael Fassbender's eponymous Apple pioneer on track, Winslet is one of the relatively few sympathetic characters in the movie and therefore all the more memorable. Prior to the BAFTAs, we'd have perhaps classed Winslet as something of a dark horse in this race. But given her recent triumph, we now consider her the frontrunner for Supporting Actress, her BAFTA win sure to carry some clout with the Oscars. However, given she's already won before for The Reader, maybe they will be reluctant to award her again?

Jennifer Jason Leigh

The movie: The Hateful Eight

Likelihood of winning: 40%

The lowdown: Quentin Tarantino's blood-soaked Western opus is crammed with memorable actors from Samuel L. Jackson to Kurt Russell and Bruce Dern, so the fact that Jennifer stands out from the ensemble is testament to her talents. She's long been one of Hollywood's most versatile actresses and the Academy loves to get all sentimental and award a favourite. Even so, given the dearth of awards attention for the movie elsewhere, consider it unlikely. 

Who do you think will win the Oscar for Best Supporting Actress? Send us your thoughts @Cineworld and stay tuned for the Oscars on Sunday 28th February.